Colonizing 103

All about a new life 03

Fast Forward a few years.

If immigration continues at a slow but steady rate, say 500 people / year adding to our base value of 1000, who are expected to land in the first few years of colonization, how are things looking 10 years on?  About 2000 immigrants, plus some of the colonists will have had new children (1 / 10 pop x 10 years) adding some 1000 kids to the settlement. Depending on the specific conditions and policy of the colony, new births may be much higher than this estimate. So we can easily predict a population of around 9000 by the time the city is 12 years old.

By Earth standards 9000 is a small population. But remember we are talking about one colony site on a habitable world. Other city sites will likely be growing at a similar rate. 

The FVFs will differ a lot more depending on their philosophy. Many will only be expecting arrivals for the first few years. This is in part because they will almost certainly be contracting the services of a colony set up company. Unlike the Nations of Earth who will own the ships they send colonists in, and will likely run regular travel services. 

Example.  

Let us say a new world has 10 city sites established by nations and 5 cities set up by corporations, each growing at about the same rate as above. By year 12 their total population is 90,000. If we then have 20 FVFs (each with 300 pop + natural growth over 10 years, doubling the base pop to reach 600) we get an additional 12,000 people on the planet. Giving us a grand total of some 110,000 inhabitants. 

Thus a Possible Problem  

“The Horta Scenario” which runs like this;

What do we do, if after a number of years our colony discovers there is intelligent life on the planet? UN-HHC rule #4 says the world belongs to the natives, we must offer to withdraw. A clear moral stand point. However it can be messy in practical terms. Evacuating 100,000 people is a huge task, when your best ships can safely move 100 / trip. (According to the Evins Evac Plan, we could stuff 300 into an M1 Outreach, if we ignore cargo and stress the life support systems to the limit.)

Diplomacy with the natives will hopefully provide some workable solution. However we can not assume it will. On the other hand, we can assume that many colonists will not want to leave “their” planet. They will insist on staying, one way or other. To be sure, the UN has no intention of supporting colonists in a fight with natives. This point will be made clear in the “So you want to live on a new world” handbook.

The situation becomes more muddy if the aliens are from another star and just show up, claiming ownership of the planet. The UN-HHC says that some proof of the claim, such as previous visitation, must be offered and verified. A big carved stone alien monument on the planet would be a good example of proof. However diplomacy would still come into play. Once a few 1000 humans are on a planet we are unlikely to give it up with out any argument.

The aliens may eradicate the colony. What do we do about it? The simple answer is nothing. We grieve for the lost, but we do not start a war over it. The situation is more troublesome if the aliens capture the colony and enslave the people. We are morally obligated to try and gain our people’s freedom. If we can do it diplomatically, great. But if not, what then?